Wednesday 3 February 2010

What next for Obama?


The Democrats are pretty much screwed, right? On January 19, the bluest of blue states, Massachusetts, elected Republican Scott Brown to the Senate, taking away the Dems’ sweet filibuster-proof super-majority. Democrats couldn’t get much of anything done with the super-majority, so how are they going to get anything done without it?

Well hang on a mo. Most presidents have managed to get by just fine without the kind of total Congressional hegemony the Democrats enjoyed during President Obama’s first year in office. In fact, Reagan and Clinton achieved oodles of legislative wins with one or both chambers of Congress in opposition hands for most of their respective terms in office.

So should Obama tack to the right, like Clinton did after 1994? Or should he emulate Reagan’s steely ideological approach and play to his base?

None of the above.

Obama’s State of the Union address – and his recent appearance at the House Republicans’ conference in Baltimore – suggest he’s going a different direction altogether. And I like his instincts.

First, let’s remember the context. This is not 1994. So far at least, the Democrats have not lost control of either chamber of Congress. They lost one seat. The repercussions of losing that seat are admittedly significant, but Brown’s victory is not evidence of a massive national backlash against Obama. The president’s approval ratings have dipped from their initially high levels, but they are still slightly higher than his disapproval ratings. So a dramatic shift to the right seems a tad premature. Thankfully Obama is playing it cool as usual. [Sadly this link does not work in the U.K. and possibly other exotic locales.] Obama’s steady-handed State of the Union address – in which he pointedly noted that his party still has large majorities in both houses – tells me that he hasn’t lost his perspective.

Secondly, in both the SOTU and Baltimore, the president emphasized an old theme of his: eschewing ideology. Being non-ideological or pragmatic is not the same thing as being centrist, a point that Democrats have often forgotten since Bill Clinton first took office. (Knee-jerk centrism is an ideological position too.) It means, as Obama often says, a willingness to embrace good ideas from either side of the political spectrum so long as they work. As he said in New Hampshire on Tuesday: “You got a better idea, bring it on.” A non-ideological approach is likely to appeal to independent voters, and that in turn would put pressure on Republican legislators in swing districts to occasionally work with the Democrats.

Lastly, to get much done, Obama needs to bring greater civility to Washington. No easy task. But if Democrats can avoid the temptation to demonize the other side, and a few Republicans can be persuaded to put solving national problems ahead of scoring political points, it could mean the difference between a year of major accomplishments and another year like 2009.

When he dropped in on the House Republicans’ conference the other day, President Obama showed what an ethic of civility looks like in action. The last clip is a brilliant case study. (It's the one called "I'll go through it with you line by line." Don't worry, he doesn't actually go through anything line by line.) Obama contrasts examples of destructive and constructive ways the Republicans could engage in debate while exemplifying civility himself in the way he recognizes Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) for his “legitimate” ideas. And the president shows that civility does not equal weakness: he sets the factual record straight concerning the deficit, and explains why he mostly disagrees with Ryan's proposal.

At the very least, if Congressional Democrats follow the president’s lead and head for the moral high ground, they’ll probably strengthen public support for their legislative goals. And who knows, maybe some Republican legislators would even be moved to reciprocate the civility. It would be sort of like when The Grinch heard all the little Whos in Whoville singing Christmas songs and decided to give back their Christmas presents.

Sorry, is that uncivil to compare Republicans to The Grinch? I’m not saying that Republicans are heartless. Just that they hate Christmas.

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